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2003-04 season index
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Tips for 21-22 February
Another Friday morning comes around and as usual I open Word and start typing any old shit that pops into my head. It's amazing what tat I can peddle as the football betting tips these days. Still, no one except Andy seems to read this so who actually cares. Miles reads it now and then and I'm sure Pete glances over it when he edits it. A readership of three - marvellous. If you're reading this and you're not one of the aforementioned three then why not email me and let me know. Please. I'm starting to feel as though nobody cares. Actually I did get one email come through to the tips address this week. It was from me, testing that the bloody thing still worked. It does, which means the reason I haven't been receiving mail on that address is because none has been sent there. What a depressingly lonely thought. I mean the thought is about feeling lonely, not that the thought itself is lonely. Although that has an air of truth about it too. [If anybody else was reading, they've probably sodded off to top themselves by now - Ed.]
Did you see that among last week's random outpourings were some betting tips that saw me extend my lead over Coco the Spreadsheet? I think he is supposed to be Coco the Chimp because that is alliterative and Andy, his keeper, works as a chocolate miner or something. But my rival is not a primate; it's a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Perhaps we should rename him Soco the Spreadsheet. And in case Andy tries to deny that Coco is really a spreadsheet I would like to remind that some months back he left me in charge of Coco. I expected to be given a lead (for walkies), a dustpan and brush (to, er, clean up after him) and the key to the banana cupboard. But no! I was emailed a spreadsheet with a few instructions on its use. Don't try and tell me he's a monkey; I know better than that.
Anyone still reading this? Perhaps I should set a little competition. I hide five random words throughout this column and the first person to email me with the words gets a prize. Nah, that won't work because no-one ever emails me. I tried bribery last week, offering free horse racing tips for anyone who mailed me. I sent myself a tip after the test mail and landed myself a 12-1 winner. Wahey! So don't base my racing tips on the ones I have given out in the past; I'm getting better.
Wibble, artichoke, Wankel rotary engine, kazoo. Snood, fission, caribou. Bong. Watermelon, giraffe, interface, elbow. Moist, perambulator, slave, fervent. Gusset, wrath, solicit, ostrich. Cardinal, counterintuitive, marina, gullible, bravado, penchant, haddock. Felch. Fornicate. Benjamin Franklin. Innovative, computational, swing, cottage.
I have an update for you now on various betting systems I have been trialing. You know about the football value system but you don't know about some of the horse racing systems I have on the go. But that's probably because most of them are showing a theoretical loss at present. [Er, whereas the football system... - Ed.] Theoretical, because I haven't put any money on them yet, just tested them in a spreadsheet. Of the 11 systems I have under test only two of them are not showing a profit either using a staking plan or level stakes. Six are showing profit to level stakes with the same number showing a profit using a variable staking plan. See, I can do this racing lark. But what of the football system? It's still showing a loss, both to level stakes and using the variable staking plan. The losses have been reduced a bit though and the strike rate is now slightly over 30 per cent. I need to crunch all that data I got, though, to improve the system. My missus is away all of this weekend so I will do it then I reckon. While the cat's away the mice get their spreadsheets out and process data, as the old adage goes.
I had a dream last night. Not along quite the same lines as Martin Luther King but not a million miles away. It was about the Chelsea v Arsenal game this weekend. OK, it is a million miles away from the 1960s black civil rights movement in the USA. I didn't actually dream about the game as such; more about the result. I had several clear visions of the result as it would be written on Ceefax. I remember it very clearly. I had the same vision several times, probably because I think I had this dream while I was dozing with the radio on this morning and it got mentioned a few times in the sports bulletins. Anyway, I can now exclusively reveal how the match will end. The ref will blow his whistle and all the players will walk back done the tunnel. Only kidding. The match will end up as a 17-1 victory for Chelsea. Eleven different players will score for Chelsea with Cudicini scoring two. He must score quite early on too because his name was quite high upon the long list of scorers. So there you have it. Bet your house on that result because, let's face it, when am I ever wrong?
I'm convinced I had something else I wanted to tell you about but I have no idea what it was now. I might remember later and come back up here and add it in. But then again I might not. I think I have written enough crap already; no point writing any more if nobody is going to read it. Ah, I've just remembered. I've got a job interview on Tuesday in Leatherhead. It's a programmer's role at Logica CMG I'm going for and I'm quite excited about it. It would be in their space and defence division, which is exactly the industry I was trying to get out of. However, I shall go along, do my best and see what happens. There will be no technical assessments this time round so I promise that when I tell you all about it next week there will be no code samples for Pete to worry about editing. Wish me luck, eh. In fact you can email me a good luck message if you like. No? Fair enough.
On with the tips now. It's pretty much as it should be this weekend, with just about everyone playing. I think the only notable exception is Portsmouth and Liverpool, who are playing their FA Cup replay instead of their league match. Other than that it looks pretty normal to me. Here are the teams Coco/Soco and I will each be backing.
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Mat |
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Coco |
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Chelsea v Arsenal
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(-605)
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8/5
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Hull v Torquay
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4/7
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Man Utd v Leeds
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(1844)
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1/5
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Cambridge v Bristol Rovers
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9/4
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Norwich v West Ham
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(536)
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1/1
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Motherwell v Kilmarnock
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9/4
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Luton v Brentford
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(674)
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8/13
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Newcastle v Middlesbrough
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4/1
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Swindon v Chesterfield
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(559)
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8/13
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Sheffield Utd v West Brom
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7/4
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QPR v Peterborough
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(1174)
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4/11
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Aldershot v Leigh RMI
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2/5
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Plymouth v Port Vale
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(655)
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4/7
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Wolves v Fulham
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6/4
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Bristol City v Wrexham
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(969)
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8/13
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Brighton v Bournemouth
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4/5
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Oxford v Bury
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(734)
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4/9
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Aberdeen v Dunfermline
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6/4
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Chester v Dag & Red
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(789)
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8/15
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Forest Green v Gravesend
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2/1
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Aldershot v Leigh RMI
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(1170)
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2/5
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Bradford v Crewe
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6/4
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Partick Thistle v Celtic
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(-3160)
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1/7
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Boston v York
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9/4
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Hearst v Dundee Utd
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(628)
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8/13
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Rochdale v Cheltenham
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6/5
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Rangers v Hibernian
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(1919)
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1/5
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Rushden v Sheffield Wed
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2/1
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Only 14 tips each again this week. I wanted 15 unique teams to make life easier but that meant have an awkward rating cut-off level so I'll make do with 14. It just means that we will each be using one team in two of our perms. Talking of which, shall we have what they are this week?
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Bet type
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Mat
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Stake
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Max return
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Coco
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Stake
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Max return
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Perm 3 from 5
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Man Utd, QPR, Aldershot, Celtic and Rangers
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31p
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£6.19
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Cambridge/Bristol Rovers, Aldershot, Bradford, Boston/York and Sheffield Wed
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31p
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£56.48
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Perm 3 from 5
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Luton, Plymouth, Bristol City, Oxford and Chester
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12p
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£4.51
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Middlesbrough, Wolves, Brighton, Aberdeen and Gravesend
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12p
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£28.23
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Perm 3 from 5
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Arsenal, Norwich, Swindon, Hearts and Oxford
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7p
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£4.31
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Hull, Motherwell/Kilmarnock, West Brom, Rochdale and Aberdeen
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7p
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£9.94
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Potential return:
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£15.01
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£94.65
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Town are away at Colchester this weekend. Will we win? Probably not, if Bobo is anything to go by. The match is rated at 248, a home win. Not a definite one by any stretch of the imagination, but the system has been 44.69 per cent accurate at predicting matches rated between 200 and 300. Will this one add to that figure or not? I think we have a good chance of winning this one actually. We have a new management team and a bit of new blood. It also seems as though it has finally dawned on the players how important the matches are now and they have started to play a bit of football. Long may it continue.
So another week draws to a close. Did you find the five random words I put in here? Actually to give you more of a chance of winning I may have put more than five in. But all you have to do is to email me and list any five of the random words along with your name and postal address. The first entry receives a prize. In the event of more than ten entries I will pick the best choice of random words for a bonus prize.
These tips were brought to you by Adam Ant and Eminem.
To see how my tips performed this week compared to Coco's click here
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