Cod Almighty | Diary

I'm Grimsby 'til the opposition score

22 February 2016

Miss Guest Diary writes: It is a well-known fact that home advantage in sport is a real phenomenon. Apparently, in sports where points are played for, such as league football, the home side is generally expected to take 60 per cent of any points on offer. Which means during the course of a season a football team should only expect to gain 40 per cent of the points available for away games.

I have been doing a bit of research into Town's away form in non-League. For the sake of completeness I have included FA Cup, Trophy and play-off games (but not games at Wembley), so some of the points are notional. What it shows is that Town started off in the 2010-11 season doing slightly worse than average with a 38 per cent points gain but that, statistically speaking, we have over-performed away from home since then.

In succeeding years Town have gained 45 per cent, 56 per cent, 53 per cent and last year a whopping 66 per cent of the points available on the road – losing only four of 26 away games in the 2014-15 season. To put this in some perspective, I looked at the success rate for the 1990-91 season, which happens to be when I began watching Town. We took only 41 per cent of the away points, even though that was the last season in which Town gained automatic promotion.

What could the reason be for the recent seeming over-performance? Could it be because Town have such a large away following these days? Even before the antics of the Forest Green stewards last year created the inflatable backlash and the huge increase in away support, I can recall being crammed behind the goal in a sea of singing fans at Alfreton, Tamworth, Nuneaton, Luton, etc. Whereas my abiding memories of away games in the League are of huddling silently on near empty terraces at places like Peterborough, Port Vale and Southend. Only for cup games or relegation battles towards the end of the season did the fans seem to come out in numbers.

So has the fact that Town's away support since dropping into the non-League is so large and so vocal, sometimes even outnumbering the home fans, given Town an edge? Well, if the science is to be believed, it seems not. Research has shown that the belief of fans that their support can make a difference to the outcome of a match is a myth and that the outcome depends far more on factors such as skill, luck and changes of circumstance.

I was relieved to learn that following Saturday's performance – I mean by the fans, not the team. I'll leave you to read about the actual game elsewhere. My overriding memory of the afternoon will be the shock – and dismay – I felt at how quickly the most vocal supporters turned on the players. After giving the team a rapturous welcome, by the time Town were 2-0 down the choruses of "We're on our way" and "So proud to be GTFC" had turned to chants about the fans being "spoilt" and the team being "shit".

When Halifax's third goal went in a couple of dozen 'fans' charged down to the front of the terrace as if to run on the pitch – thus providing all concerned with an excuse to justify the heavy police presence at the game and in the town. Idiots.

By the time Halifax's fourth goal went in many of the crowd had left, and many of those remaining were calling for Hurst to be sacked. This despite the fact that Town are lying third in the table; and, for the record, with a current away points gain of 55 per cent.

I really cannot understand how so many supporters can switch from praise to blame in such a short time. Have expectations simply been raised too high by previous performances, causing fans to act like spoilt toddlers when things don't go how they'd like? Is it something in the Grimsby psyche or are fans of other clubs this volatile? Or maybe it is generational, with an increasing proportion of the vocal support coming from an age group who are not used to waiting for gratification. I'd really like to know – so get in touch if you can offer any insight.

Sometimes being a Town fan at an away game is the best feeling in the world – I'm thinking Barnet last season; but at others it can be awful, such as last month at Gateshead, and now Halifax. Will I regret booking those hotels for trips to Forest Green, Guiseley and Cheltenham? I'll just have to go along and find out. See you there!