Cod Almighty | Diary

Stat attack!

8 May 2019

So, farewell then, season '18-19. A campaign so unpredictable that it was almost mundane: sequences of defeats, followed by a series of wins and draws. In fact, there were only five games – Forest Green, Cheltenham and the final three – which punctuated those sequences.

Michael Jolley said he wanted to improve on the previous year and he certainly did that on most measures, with three more wins, three more goals, 10 fewer goals conceded and five more points. There was one more defeat in there but overall, the record meant Town finished a place higher in the fourth division.

Could it have been different? Maybe. Thunderdiary thinks the season peaked at Selhurst Park. That gallant defeat proved we had the makings of a team that could be tactically astute with the energy to see games out. It was also one of Andrew Fox’s final games and his record of 22 points won in the 11 games he started suggests that a full Foxy season would have seen us in the play-offs.

So Town finished 17th but in other league tables how did we fare?

Clean sheets: sixth. This is remarkable, given the high number of defeats in the season. In all Town managed 16 shut-outs with some amazing performances from the mercurial James McKeown.

Goals scored: 21st. A familiar tale, and although Wes Thomas's goals kept us afloat, the need for a 20-goal striker is palpable.

Failed to score: fourth. Town drew a blank in 18 games, with only Port Vale, Yeovil and Cambridge faring worse.

Home table: 13th. Town’s points haul at home was 37. This was 10 more than the previous season, when we had the worst home record in the division.

Away table: 19th. Only five away victories (compared to seven in the 2017-18 season) meant Town were always likely to languish in the bottom half of the league.

Other interesting stats from the season include gaining 47 points when scoring first. Only Forest Green in the first game and Mansfield away came from behind to beat us. When the opposition scored first, we won only six points, the only victory-from-behind being against Tranmere. Jolley always commented on getting the first goal and this proves how important it was.

37 per cent of Town's games featured only one goal or none at all: a startling fact. More than half of the wins were by one goal, and more than half of the defeats were also by one goal. Taken together, these stats suggest that GTFC were competitive in most games and at least tried to win them. Had we turned half the defeats into draws, those 11 points would have helped us leap up the table.

If we can get that striker to bag the goals – preferably before the other team scores – and defend resolutely in the second half of matches, then we could have a great season next year

It will be no surprise that Town conceded most goals in the final half-hour (27). Town also scored most of their goals (13) in the final quarter of each half, meaning most games were in the balance in the middle of the second half. The fact we only scored in both halves nine times means a faster start to matches is something to work on for next year.

I suppose all of this means what we already knew – not enough goals and too many defeats, particularly away from home. If we can get that striker to bag the goals – preferably before the other team scores – and defend resolutely in the second half of matches, then we could have a great season next year. Certainly the amount of clean sheets and a younger defence gives hope for this.

The other statistic worth mentioning concerns the age of the players. The oldest outfield starter last Saturday was Harry Davis at 27, in a team with an average age of just over 21. Of the 12 players who started at least half of the 46 league games, nine were aged under 24. This is proof that Jolley has invested in youth and hopefully he'll continue to do so.

The recent success of the youth team, champions of their league, means those 'booking fees' we paid during the non-League years have not been wasted, with the great black-and-white hope that local talent will bear fruit for the first time in a generation.