Cod Almighty | Diary

You can prove anything with facts, can't you? These days.

7 February 2020

Town’s results have improved under Ian Holloway and we’re finding the back of the net more frequently. These are facts, and we like them. Armed with a hypothesis, I set out to unearth more facts from different areas of our game to see if scoring and winning more regularly was lucky, superficial, or down to something a little deeper.

What your West Yorkshire Diary found did not agree with my hypothesis. Using match stats provided by the BBC, I compared Ollie’s first six games against Anthony Limbrick’s final six. And here are the headlines.

Possession is down (53 per cent to 51 per cent). We're shooting less often (13.67 shots per game to 11.67). And we're winning fewer corners (4.67 per game to 4.17).

But the most startling statistics are what we're allowing the opposition to do. Under Limbrick, we were conceding an average of 10.83 shots per game. Under Ollie, that's risen quite sharply to 15.67. Shots that have been on target have risen from an average of just 2 (Limbrick) to 5.33 (Ollie). Corners conceded? Up from 3.5 (Limbrick) to 7.17 (Ollie).

We're clearly being more generous in defence, and that’s almost certainly down to us playing a more expansive, open game. And if there's one thing we can't always control, it's how wasteful the opposition can be. No team has had more shots at James McKeown in these past six games than bottom club Stevenage, and they managed to score just once from their 19 efforts.

What can't be measured so clinically, of course, is style of play. Town's opening goal against Forest Green was a thing of beauty; in 30 seconds we saw bravery at the back, teamwork to get the ball forward, neat interplay in the final third and a great lay-off followed by a confident finish.

Fans will quite rightly point to the one statistic that counts, and that’s putting the ball in the net. We did it just twice in Limbrick’s six matches; we’ve done it nine times in Ollie’s half-dozen games.

In summary, then: we're being much more efficient in front of goal but we're much more open at the back. The past three games have given us a little window into the way Ollie wants us to play, with scores of 2-3, 3-1 and 2-2.

Tomorrow the Mariners travel to Bradford and there's no way on earth this is ending 0-0. The return of Stuart McCall as manager has given City a lift, but there will be more than 2,000 Town fans at Valley Parade — and with a handful of ex-Bantams in our side, the atmosphere should be a cracker.

It’s been a little while since Town last beat Bradford — just over 21 years, to be precise. Since then, we've lost nine and drawn four. It’s been nearly 23 years since we last won at Valley Parade, but it was a seven-goal thriller. If the action on the pitch lives up to the atmosphere in the stands then we could be on for something similar tomorrow.

It might be fourth division football, but this feels like a proper Saturday, and a proper football match. If you’re going, wrap up warm and enjoy the game. UTMM!