Cod Almighty | Diary

Book your favourite Wembley hotel - the play-offs are on

10 March 2020

This Tuesday, while matchless, does bring Casual Diary the joy of his favourite non-footballing sporting event: the start of the Cheltenham Festival. 

I don't go to Cheltenham any more as, like top-level football, the racing gig at the fashionable meetings has been taken over by the monied middle classes. They have no real interest in the sport; it's simply a place to be seen. They crowd the bars ordering prosecco or some pretentious gin; make the queues at the on-course bookies long, and filled with banal conversations about Rupert's new vision; and generally get in the way while forcing prices out of the reach of the seasoned race-goers. I give it a miss.

But when I have filed this diary I will be buried in the Racing Post at Bradley Crossroads BetFred (other scam merchant bookies are available) looking for what many recent Town managers found elusive - a win.

Ian Holloway has no problems on that score. The weekend's victory over the nearest professional club to us (It's all they are - Scunthorpe didn't get League status until Division Four was formed) has eradicated the surrender to the Cobblers. I refuse to believe the play-offs are beyond us.

Indulge me.

If you accept that the top five are off and away, safely promoted or at least assured of a play-off place, that leaves the clubs occupying places six to twelve in our way. Five of these clubs will play more than half their their remaining games against a top-12 team. Only Town, Salford and Crawley do not, facing only three such games.

Having studied the fixtures, my prediction is that Colchester will fill one of the two remaining spots up for grabs with 77 points. If everything goes as I expect, Port Vale will take the final place on 72 points. Town would fall short on 65 points having won five, drawn three and lost one of our remaining nine games.

But therein lies the rub. You see one of the three games Town play against the club's involved - indeed the only one against those in the hunt for the last two play-off places - is at Vale Park. I have predicted a loss. Vale also face Crewe at home, a tense local derby with Alex currently leading the pack: I've predicted a draw.

Which brings us nicely to our "If my Granny had bollocks she's my Grandad" moment. Let's just say that a Championship-chasing Crewe turn over their bitterest local rivals, and a rampant Town on a six-game unbeaten run make it not just a Good but a fantastic Friday by repeating last year's win at Vale Park. That would leave Town and Vale level on 68 points. Now given that we'd have to overturn a 12-goal deficit, and that Port Vale have lost only once at home all season, it's a big call. They have however drawn eight, so a fortress it isn't.

Regardless of such matters it is prudent to presume Town, if they're to make the trip back to Blundell Park South, will also need to turn one of my predicted draws into a win which brings us nicely back to Cheltenham, one of the three games I expect us to take a point from - the others are Plymouth and Crewe

There are other permutations of course: we could win seven, draw at Crewe, lose at Port Vale and still pip them by a point. Either way it's the hope that kills you.

If you are having a bet, good luck. If you're putting 23 Irish lottery lines on, stay out of Bradley Crossroads and maybe take a look at your life.

UTM