Cod Almighty | Diary
May contain sums
14 April 2020
Well it is now confirmed that lock down will not be ending anytime soon. Given the government's love of a WWII analogy, Casual Diary predicts it will end on 6 June.
This leaves us with the issue of how to complete the season. One option floating about is a 56-day day season finale which would take us to 1 August. This would obviously have far-reaching effects on player's contracts for next season, with clubs unable to arrange their playing squads to fight out the 2020-21 season. A particular concern in Town's case.
There has also been speculation from none other than our non-chairman/major shareholder's current mouthpiece of a behind-closed-doors finale viewed via I-Follow. While the government might allow such a competition to start earlier, it is fraught with legal dangers for the competition authorities.
Some time in the distant past Spurs faced a "Champions" League fourth place decider on the last day of the season against West Ham. Shortly before the game, a dodgy lasagne laid the majority of the first team squad low and Spurs sought a postponement. The Premier League, conscious of their main sponsors' need for co-ordinated last day drama, denied the application. Spurs lost 2-1 and were pipped to the qualifying spot by bitter rivals Arsenal. The threats of litigation were flying.
Now imagine it is next month, and let's say promotion-chasing Plymouth have a player contract COVID-19, requiring the rest of the squad to self-isolate. What's to be done? Should they play the stiffs and juniors? The competition is surely compromised.
The league below us - the one which prior to the arrival of Ian Holloway there seemed a fair chance we'd be returning to - are looking at using average points per game to decide final positions. This would be done on average points gained on a home and away match basis. Therefore an average home haul of two points per match and six remaining home games would net you 12 points. Away performance and number of games would be similarly attributed.
On the face of it, this would seem the most equitable way to resolve the season. But it takes no account of form, local derbies, or games against promotion or relegation rivals that cannot be brought to the equation. The actual fact is they would make little if any difference.
If we look at Town, our own overall performance this season has seen us gain 47 points from 37 games an overall average of 1.27 points per game (PPG). Our records at both home and away are remarkably similar: 1.27 PPG at home, 1.26 PPG away. On points per game, we'd climb above Crawley to finish 12th. We could argue that our form since the turn of the year is much improved. Since then our PPGs are 1.85 at home and 1.37 away. Even if we used those figures, we'd still finish 12th.
Having gone through the whole table on a PPG based on average home and away performances, or simply adding the average number of points gained by the games left, the table remains largely unaltered. If the table were calculated on a PPG basis our rising above Crawley would be the only change. If an average of points gained per match were to be used, additionally Forest Green would rise above Salford. There would be no change whatsoever in the promotion, play-off or relegation places.
All that seems to add credence to the belief that a PPG on a home and away basis is indeed the fairest way to settle placings. Sadly for Town any method including the best available of form over the last 10 games would see us fall well short of a play off spot. There can't be many among us who do not consider that a fair reflection of the team and the season.
See you in August, or May, or June. Who knows?
UTM