Cod Almighty | Diary

Old and wise, old and foolish, or just old

29 October 2024

If there's anything interesting in the paragraphs below, thank Guest Diary and Retro Diary. For the rest, blame Newbegin Diary.

Around this time four years ago, Guest Diary noted on social media that in October goal difference can be a better guide to a club's prospects than their league position. It was an insight gained from almost half a century of football experience and it proved prophetic. When he wrote that, Grimsby's position had been poor but not awful while our goal difference was about the worst in the division, and a few months later we were relegated.

Today, there are only four teams in the fourth flight with a worse goal difference than Town, and yet we are tenth, only a point below the play-off places. We are religiously observing Retro's law that the team seeking success should avoid draws, and we are being flattered by the outcome.

There is the mathematical truth that a point disappears into the ether whenever a game is drawn. Beyond that, it is not hard to imagine victories being snatched from us: a late free kick just the wrong side of the post against Cheltenham; a stabbed Bromley shot just one centimetre lower; a weak referee at Tranmere. On the other hand, Chesterfield aside, it is hard to see how we might have rescued points from the games we have lost.

None of this is intended to be controversial. If I'm implying we don't look like a side on the fringes of the race for promotion, I'm certainly not saying we are relegation fodder. I'm perhaps just echoing a point Dave Artell made a fortnight ago, that when we are on top in games we need to start pulling away.

Meantime, when Guest Diary, Retro Diary and I were boys and there were only two points for a win, our record would have had us solidly mid-table, and looking forward to a run in the FA Cup to add spice to the season. Bring on Wealdstone.