The Diary

People with their own agendas

10 April 2015

Retro Diary writes: Now I know I'm one of those 'glass half empty' Town fans who's coming in for a lot of stick at the moment. It's not, I promise you, an attempt to suck the joy out of the situation or pee on anybody's strawberries. It's just the way I cope.

It's because I want Town to go up just a bit too much, and not getting carried away acts as my disappointment-proof vest. Low expectations make everything seem like a bonus. It's a kind of natural, in-built risk assessment honed over many decades in a game over which I have no control, and which tends not to let people down all that lightly.

So, just as Town are finally picking up steam and becoming the ruthless winning machine they should have been all season, the end of the runway is careering towards us. We might still be paying lip service to attaining top spot, but in fact it is now mathematically fairly unlikely. That's not the glass half empty thing again: that's the maths. Barnet would have to fail to win two out of their final three matches; and Bristol Rovers would have to fail to win one of their three, indeed lose it if they managed to catch up three goals on us. Town, in addition, would need to attend to the small matter of winning everything.

No, I'm sorry. Breathe deeply, everybody. I'm afraid it's likely to be the dreaded play-offs again for us, unless something truly magnificent is to unfold. Even before Monday's sunny away day, once Barnet had won at Dartford in the lunchtime kick-off, top spot became a little more than a soft-focus fantasy of what should have been.

In the Telegraph this week Geoff Ford blames Town's inability to win in front of the bigger home crowds, pointing out that if you take the three highest attendances in each of the last three seasons, Town haven't won any of those nine matches. Intuitively this seems right, but such an analysis would have any self-respecting statistician reaching for the gin.

I much prefer Geoff Ford's alternative theory: that there is something about Town's style which is more suited to playing away

Let's start at the beginning. Each season was a different team, so you're asking us to believe that nervousness in front of home crowds somehow transmutes from one set of players to another over the close season. In 2012-13 there was certainly no significant correlation between crowds and results anyway, even at a glance: we won five out of the eight highest-attended games.

So, let's take this season and last together, assuming for now they involve the same Town team, which really they don't. If you put home attendances in order of largest first, it's true – you are down to number eight in the list before you get a victory. But it would be remiss not to point out that the biggest crowds tend to assemble for the best opposition. And, of course, local derbies, in which home advantage is almost irrelevant. That is where it all falls down. Sorry Geoff.

(This little bit of research has taught me one thing, at least – don't look up your Town attendances on Wikipedia: they seem to be completely made up on there. Come on Wiki, you're not making my life any easier. Maybe it's up to us, the interactive users, to put it right, if only we could be arsed/knew how? Hmmm.)

I much prefer Geoff Ford's alternative theory: that there is something about Town's style which is more suited to playing away. In this, I think he's right. In away games the opposition are obliged to attack you and the games become 'stretched'. In home games, the bloke next to me in the Main Stand nearly gives himself a stroke every week screaming at Town to leave players up the field when the opposition breaks. When it finally becomes too much for him and he pegs it in his seat, I'm going to suggest the oft-repeated phrase 'TOO DEEP, TOWN' in shouty capitals, for his gravestone.

Tomorrow we entertain managerless Wrexham, whose season is now effectively over. It's something of a mystery why our old Welsh adversaries have done so badly this season. They have certainly picked up in the last two matches, in particular looking decidedly superior to Macclesfield on Easter Monday. In that game and the one before, they returned to a dangerous 4-4-2 formation from a not so effective 4-5-1, then 4-3-3. Well, bugger me, who'd have thought it, I hear you say.

Most of Wrexham's team are out of contract in a fortnight's time, and those playing for their futures might well be putting in an uncharacteristically keen shift tomorrow. It's certainly not an easy game for Town. Watch out for young midfielder Sam Finley – he's getting some good reviews. Connor Jennings will be back for them too, at centre-forward.

Isn't it funny these days how it's never the injury's fault – it's always the game's fault for coming too quickly

Enjoy tomorrow's game; it may not actually matter that much when the end-of-season accounts are in, but a win would at least keep us dreaming. We can almost, dare I say it, relax – indeed, it might help. Just try not to glance at the fourth division table, just one step above us, with its three automatic promotion places. You really wouldn't wish the Conference on anyone, would you.

Right, I think I've called fate's bluff enough here – the god of sod is well and truly piqued. I'm off to watch Jack Mackreth's wrong-footed haymaker hitting the Pontoon net again. It cheers me up no end, and might turn out to be the stand-out moment of the season. We hope, of course, that there is a bit more excitement to come before teatime on Sunday 17 May. In football, nothing's ever straightforward – which, for us, is maybe a good thing now.

For us, Josh Gowling would surely have kept his place to ensure that Toto gets to Sunday's bookings amnesty without mishap, but he has woken up unable to bend his foot back. Dave Moore apparently "can't put his finger on it". Don't laugh. Carl Magnay is back, but Jolley has a hamstring strain. Isn't it funny these days how it's never the injury's fault – it's always the game's fault for coming too quickly.

For them, veteran left-back Neil Ashton is touch and go.

And finally, in today's Telegraph, Hursty says that from a nerves point of view "we're perhaps in the better position because, out of the three teams, we are the one with the slimmest chance". I know. Descending the league table is certainly one way to combat nerves, Paul.

Like I said, relax; it will all be OK. One of these years.