Cod Almighty | Diary

Here there be dragons and football stats

30 October 2020

Ian Holloway has mentioned recently the use of an unnamed analyst who has given him untold insight into the playing style and tactics of the opposition. The boss spoke of being able to look at videos of throw-ins (mentioning in passing that ours were currently 'rubbish') or even focusing on one player. It's obvious that the data available even at our level of the game is burgeoning.

As Town begin to settle on a playing style, it is interesting to look at stats like possession. On average, Town have had possession of the ball this season for 52% of the time. The highest was against Forest Green at over 63% whilst the lowest was against Bolton at 37%.

This probably shows how we are developing as a team, keeping the ball in more recent games as Holloway gets the chance to forge the group in his style.

But what does percentage football get you? The fine wins at Cheltenham and Orient were both completed with just over 40% of the ball. Town's counter-attacking paid dividends on those occasions. When we've had large swathes of the football, we haven't seen many points gained from it.

And what does possession get you? If having the ball in our own half rockets up your possession stats, is it any use? Certainly we've conceded against Harrogate and Carlisle whilst in possession in and around our own box, resulting in at least three points lost in those games alone.

I presume the aim is to suck teams in and then one killer pass sets us up for a goal. Thing is, that killer pass is not always forthcoming, as the detailed pass stats from @dymondformation on Twitter tell us. Click here for a larger image if this isn't easy to read on your device or here for the original tweet.

The pass map for each player shows a yellow arrow for a successfully completed pass and a red arrow for those that were shanked to FGR or into the seats. In total as a team, Town passed the ball in open play 508 times on Tuesday with over 75% of these passes successfully finding their target.

Now don't panic if you haven't seen a heat map like the one on the right before. It is set up as if Town were playing left to right for the 90 minutes. The shading is heavier in areas where a GTFC player passed the ball. As you can see from the map, the vast majority of passes are along the back three and the wing backs, with comparatively little activity up front. There is hardly any passing through the middle and only four successful passes into the Forest Green box.

Lots of the ball without any end product. 

Thing is, if Thunderdiary can get hold of these stats then opposition analysts can too, with plenty more besides. Stevenage will already be abreast of the style and system Holloway has been adopting and will press like Harrogate or indeed sit back like Forest Green and wait for the ball to come to them. 

What the opposition won't know, like us, is what team will be out there tomorrow. Let us hope that whoever dons the famous salmon pink can pick out a pass and create some much-needed chances.